I’ve gotten into a couple discussions recently with people concerned about an Order 6102 situation where a government tries to confiscate Bitcoin. I wanted to make a post and get more thoughts from people about this. I have my own thoughts that I will post below and if you think my view is wrong I would like to know why.
For those that don’t know, [Order 6102](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executive_Order_6102) was an executive order in the US made in 1933 that outlawed possession of gold and empowered govt officials to confiscate it. They took people’s gold and compensated them at a rate of $20/oz. Then they set the price at $35/oz, effectively stealing that value by devaluing their own currency against gold. It was kind of like a one shot 75% inflation boost to their coffers. It was wrong on so many levels and considered by many to be the govt defaulting on their debt obligations.
At the time gold was still the reserve that backed up US currency and they were in the middle of the great depression. It was a very different time, and gold is very different from Bitcoin. Economies were much more localized and information was vastly more scarce than it is today. Gold could not be easily transported or hidden from authorities.
At its current market cap and adoption level, Bitcoin is not considered a threat to dollar hegemony, so they have no reason to confiscate it. What about when Bitcoin has grown much larger, to say a $10T MC? If they did then, it would probably still drive up the value even further as it would signal to everyone that they view it as a legitimate threat. We live in a global economy now and massive amounts of information are available at our fingertips. The news would spread instantly and the entire world would take notice and begin thinking about how they can take advantage of the situation.
Then we have to consider what the govt intends to do with the confiscated coin. Are they trying to take it out of circulation? Well then all the remaining Bitcoin just got more scarce and valuable. Are they going to use it as a reserve to back up their own currency? Wow, what an amazing outcome that would be. They would give up all their power in monetary policy that the central bank currently holds to do so. Isn’t that what we want?
On top of all that we have to consider the logistics of the confiscation effort. It would be extremely difficult to get people to comply with the order to surrender their Bitcoin, especially if they were trying to compensate at a rate lower than market value. If they tried to straight up steal it the resistance would be violent. That’s not even taking into account how long an order like this would be caught up in a legal battle.
My main point on this is that if it ever came down to a large govt like the US trying to confiscate Bitcoin it will mean that Bitcoin has won the battle. It is the best form that money has ever taken, and it can’t be stopped. It is so much bigger than any one government can handle, even at its current size. If they tried to confiscate it I would be celebrating because it will open so many eyes to the value of Bitcoin across the world.